I post an update on unemployment claims shortly after the BLS report is made available. Our focus is the four-week moving ...
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This yield curve-fueled recession indicator from the Fed shows a 70% probability of a downturn. Here’s what its author says.One model used at the Fed was written in 2006. Titled “the yield curve and predicting recessions,” the paper calculates recession probabilities over the next 12 months using just three ...
When the treasury bond yield curve inverts (and remains inverted for some time), the likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is high. A yield curve is a graph on which bonds are ...
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