We are surrounded by random events every day. Will the stock market rise or fall tomorrow? Will the next penalty kick in a soccer match go left or right? Will your lottery ticket finally win? Often, ...

We test for a “hot hand” (i.e., short-term predictability in performance) in Major League Baseball using panel data. We find strong evidence for its existence in all 10 statistical categories we ...

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, July 16. The Hot Hand fallacy is a cognitive social bias that was highlighted in the Big Short, the cautionary tale about the 2008 ...

Gambler’s fallacy is a common cognitive bias that affects decision-making, especially in areas like gambling, investing, and trading. In this article, we’ll strive to break things down by giving you a ...