We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The U.S. Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (USMPD) collects high-frequency changes of interest rates and asset prices around Federal ...

Monetary policy refers to the actions a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, takes to achieve national economic goals by influencing the availability and cost of money and credit. Changes in ...

SF President Mary C. Daly will join Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Chicago Fed ...

Good morning and thank you for inviting me to southern Utah. I am delighted to be here and look forward to a lively conversation.1 The Federal Reserve has been in the news these days. There are ...

Adam Shapiro, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of April 16, 2026. Oil markets ...

Nominal interest rates have real effects. Residential mortgages and other real world debt contracts require a sequence of constant nominal payments. Combined with payment-to-income constraints, these ...

Some goods and services prices are not directly observed and must be indirectly derived for measuring inflation. This nonmarket-based inflation category has been an important factor keeping headline ...

Yeah, that’s the number one question. I got stopped on the airplane and asked that question, what’s the outlook for the economy? So let me start there. One of the things that has been remarkable about ...

We evaluate whether LLMs have had any discernible impact on the aggregate labor market so far. We focus on occupations that are computer programming-intensive, motivated by data showing that coding is ...

We develop an endogenous measure of anchoring for short-run expected inflation in a New Keynesian model with full-information rational expectations. Specifically, we allow the fraction of ...

We use novel data from a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives to study the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on productivity and the workforce. We document substantial heterogeneity in AI ...