As much as any top player, Sinner has been able to expose De Minaur’s lack of first-strike weaponry. The Aussie’s strength is his scrambling and counterpunching, but Sinner serves too well, hits too hard, places the ball too precisely for his defense to be effective. De Minaur hasn’t found a way to hurt, rattle, of disrupt him.

They also have a dead-even head-to-head record. Keys won their first two matches, and Rybakina came back to win the next two, including their only meeting of 2024, on hard courts in Miami. Keys has won eight straight matches in Adelaide and Melbourne, while Rybakina, with new coach Goran Ivanisevic, hasn’t dropped a set this week.