We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we ...

SF President Mary C. Daly will join Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Chicago Fed ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat subdued but largely stable during the mid-February through March ...

Good morning and thank you for inviting me to southern Utah. I am delighted to be here and look forward to a lively conversation.1 The Federal Reserve has been in the news these days. There are ...

Good afternoon and thank you for that kind introduction. And thank you to the Silicon Valley Leadership Group and to San Jose State University for having me here. I am looking forward to a great ...

The large increase and subsequent decline of unauthorized immigrant workers in recent years have raised questions about the impact of these changes on local labor markets across the United States. New ...

Understanding housing demand dynamics through two indicators, income growth and population growth, provides important insights into housing affordability. Research shows that average U.S. income ...

The pace of job growth cooled through mid-2025, while the unemployment rate rose relatively little. This seeming puzzle is explained by an even stepdown of labor supply and demand, meaning slowing ...

The change in the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 was the largest in the modern era. One way to assess the effects of such a large shock on unemployment and inflation is by looking at data from ...

A decrease in oil supply drives up oil prices, which can raise unemployment and inflation. To counter adverse effects on inflation, a central bank may choose to increase its policy rate, potentially ...

The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ input costs, resulting in supply-side effects such as higher inflation and ...